I’m looking at the C2015 [...]

DAL C2015 Infighting: Cost per Post

I’m looking at the C2015 leaks, infighting, and inside politics going on right now, and I’m seeing my money, and yours, being squandered. It’s the very same pattern of infighting we saw on the JCBA, C2012, Part 117 TA, and C2015. What’s happening is obvious, but perhaps not the cost.

In the JCBA, the second deal was several % lower in overall value than the first. For C2012, 4/8.5/3/3 was leaked early, and as many point out here, eerily accurate. For FAR 117 (strangely, no leaks to warn us of CDO’s), we lost 1 hour of LC leash, and something else; I can’t remember what.

Now, we’re getting leaks about C2015. I’ve been wondering WHAT is being leaked. Where did the details come from?

If you think critically about it, it becomes pretty obvious WHY 4/8.5/3/3 turned out to be true. It could ONLY be true because the only thing we have leak is our bottom line. There is no 2015 TA to leak, we know that. If there was, that fact in and of itself would be known. All that we have to leak are discussions on our side, which happen as the MEC gives direction to the NC.

Ostensibly, the (often stated) purpose of these leaks is to get pressure on the majority, to swing votes for something else. I’ve been watching these shenanigans for a while, and I think it’s about discrediting people, and making the leakers look like heroes, but that’s just my opinion. The people doing the leak claim that they’re leaking what the majority would agree to, or try to cram down their throat, whichever.

Trouble is, the majority is likely to get their way. That’s what majorities do. Which makes the gamble of a leak a long shot, but it has one perverse, immediate, and certain result: you just leaked our bottom line direction to the negotiators. The NC is NOT coming back with something better.

So, I don’t have a figure in front of me, but we know for certain that we lost in the JCBA’s second deal, after the infighting saga, since we did have two TA’s to compare. I don’t recall how much we lost, but it was at least 1% of DC, and some other stuff. Let’s use 2% as an example. For C2012, we don’t know. I don’t know what you guys think the value of a disciplined MEC that didn’t leak like crazy is? 2% seems awfully conservative. The 117 negotiations? Not sure, since that one, strangely, had no leaks. But the second deal, sans CDO’s, came in a little worse. What’s the value one extra hour of LC leash to a Reserve, anyway?

I’m open to better numbers to quantify it, but while we were fighting about who should be in charge, we did cut the guys actually in charge off at the knees, and I’m guessing a rock-bottom estimate for the cumulative loss is 4%. My family is now losing at least $8,000/year to political infighting. So, if we spend, say 1,000 posts/year fighting over this stuff, that entertainment is worth about $8.00 each. If we post a lot, I think we can get it down to maybe a couple of bucks, before people start drowning in their own vomit in front of the computer.

But sometimes a morsel so juicy comes along, that you must pay MORE. When something as good as 9/9/5/5, or 9/9/4/4 showed up, and got our part of the web buzzing, we locked it in. It’s not going to be 12/10/5/5, or something like that, because it doesn’t have to be. Whatever the NC could have gotten above the bottom line, we will not get. Call it 1%, 2%, 3%, whatever. Let’s say it’s only another 2%. When you read 9/9/5/5, instead of a free rumor, you just got to write Mike Campbell a check for 2% of your pay. Might as well text a buddy, share the joy. Lurker or poster, you’re in. Guy that never heard of APC? RJ guy who posted nasty things before you got hired? Navy guy that didn’t? GuardDude? Doesn’t matter: we all pay the fee.

Every. Year. The effect of lowering the bar is felt… every year.

Because I’m a nice guy however, I’m providing this post for free.

You guys have a nice Memorial Day week-end


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DAL C2015 Infighting: Cost per Post

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